The population of Bristol

We have published an information paper, The Population of Bristol – April 2012 (pdf, 1.5 MB). This looks at what we know about the numbers of people living in the Bristol Local Authority Area. The paper brings together official estimates and projections from the Office for National Statistics (external website), alternative sources of population data such as National Insurance Registrations and local sources of information from across the council and the Primary Care Trust.

None of the sources included in the population report take into account the 2011 Census results. A 2011 population estimate will be published in July 2012 and will be based on the results of the 2011 Census. The 2011 estimate will be a new benchmark in the population estimates time series and all estimates back to 2002 will be revised to bring them in line with the 2011 Census-based estimate. The full census results including detailed population characteristics and data for small geographies will be published from November 2012 and throughout 2013. For more information on the 2011 Census go to our Census web page

Some facts about Bristol's population:

• We have a population of about 441,300 - the largest city in the South West.
• We are one of England's eight 'Core Cities'.
• Bristol's population is expected to reach 460,800 people by 2020.
• We have more children under sixteen than people of a pensionable age.
• 13.5% of our population belongs to a black or minority ethnic group.
• We are the 7th largest city in England (not including London) and the 12th largest Local Authority in the UK.

The data, together with more information about the estimates, can be found in the following:

• 2010 Population Estimates - Briefing note (pdf, 83 KB)
• 2010 Population Estimates for Bristol (pdf, 23 KB)
• Frequently asked questions: 2010 population estimates (pdf, 137 KB)
• Frequently asked questions: births and fertility (pdf, 258 KB)
  
• 2010 Population Estimates by LSOA (pdf, 238 KB)
• 2010 Population Estimates by Ward (pdf, 175 KB)
• Population Estimates by Ethnic Group 2001 - 2009 (pdf, 11 KB)
• Somali Community Calculator (pdf, 41 KB)
• Somali Community Profile (pdf, 444 KB)

Small area population estimates can be displayed on a map using our Instant Atlas data tool. 

Population projections

The Office for National Statistics (ONS) have published 2010-based population projections for Bristol: 

• Bristol population projections briefing note (pdf, 57 KB)
• 2010-based population projections by broad age band (pdf, 31 KB)
• 2010-based population projections by five year age band (pdf, 7 KB)
• Bristol Population Trend 1951 to 2035 (pdf, 14 KB)
• Note on population projections across England (pdf, 127 KB)
• Population Projections Frequently Asked Questions (pdf, 70 KB)

Advice on using the projections

These projections have been produced in advance of the 2011 Census results. They replace the 2008-based projections previously published by the Office for National Statistics (ONS). In September/October 2012, these 2010-based projections will be replaced by a new short term set of projections to 2015 which use the 2011 Census as their starting point. 

The indicative 2010 population estimate which is the base for these projections differs from the published ONS 2010 Mid Year Population Estimates. The published ONS 2010 Mid Year Estimates should still be used when population estimates are required.

The trend-based approach used for the projections is consistent across all local authorities. The projections cover a twenty five year horizon and small variations in initial assumptions can make a significant difference over the whole period. Therefore, the further ahead the projection is made, the greater the uncertainty. Ideally projections over a 10 year period should be used in preference to those over the twenty or twenty five year period.